OPEC+ Production Timeline
Every major production decision from the Declaration of Cooperation (December 2016) through the 2026 Hormuz crisis.
WTI Price with OPEC+ Decisions
Production Decision Impact (Mbpd)
Click any dot or bar to scroll to the event in the timeline below
Dec 10, 2016
Declaration of Cooperation signed
OPEC and 10 non-OPEC producers (led by Russia) agreed to cut 1.8 Mbpd. First coordinated OPEC/non-OPEC cut since 2001.
Jan 1, 2017
Cuts take effect
Target: 32.5 Mbpd total OPEC production. Compliance unexpectedly high at 90%+.
Nov 30, 2017
Extension through 2018
Vienna meeting extended cuts through December 2018. Libya and Nigeria exempted.
Jun 22, 2018
Partial unwind agreed
After the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (May 2018), OPEC+ agreed to increase production to offset anticipated Iran sanctions losses.
Dec 7, 2018
Deeper cuts
New 1.2 Mbpd cut from January 2019. Russia reluctant but agreed.
Jul 1, 2019
Charter of Cooperation
Made the OPEC+ framework permanent (previously ad hoc).
Mar 6, 2020
Saudi-Russia price war begins
Russia refused deeper cuts to offset COVID demand destruction. Saudi Arabia retaliated by announcing maximum production and discount pricing. The worst single day for oil prices since 1991.
Apr 12, 2020
Historic 9.7 Mbpd emergency cut
Largest coordinated production cut in history. Followed Trump brokering a deal between MBS and Putin. Still not enough to prevent WTI going negative on April 20.
Apr 20, 2020
WTI goes negative
May 2020 contract settled at minus $37.63. Cushing storage near full. See Chapter 23 for the full account.
May to Dec 2020
Gradual easing
Cuts reduced from 9.7 to 7.7 Mbpd (August 2020), then to 5.8 Mbpd (January 2021). Demand recovering slowly.
Jul 18, 2021
UAE baseline dispute
UAE demanded a higher production baseline, briefly threatening the OPEC+ framework. Resolved by increasing UAE baseline to 3.5 Mbpd from April 2022.
Aug to Dec 2021
Monthly 400k bpd increases
OPEC+ added 400k bpd each month. Demand recovery outpaced the unwind. WTI climbed from $65 to $75.
Feb 24, 2022
Russia invades Ukraine
Oil spiked above $100. OPEC+ maintained its scheduled 400k/month increases but actual production fell short as Russia's output was sanctioned.
Oct 5, 2022
2 Mbpd cut despite US pressure
OPEC+ cut 2 Mbpd from November 2022 quotas despite Biden administration lobbying Saudi Arabia not to cut. Washington called it "aligning with Russia."
Apr 2, 2023
Surprise voluntary cuts
Saudi Arabia and allies announced 1.16 Mbpd voluntary cuts on top of group quotas. Unannounced before the meeting.
Jun 4, 2023
Saudi unilateral 1 Mbpd cut
Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut an additional 1 Mbpd (from roughly 10 to 9 Mbpd), calling it a "lollipop" for the market. Extended repeatedly through 2024.
Nov 30, 2023
Voluntary cuts extended, Angola exits
Group agreed to extend voluntary cuts. Angola announced departure from OPEC (effective January 1, 2024), reducing OPEC to 12 members.
Jun 2, 2024
Gradual unwind plan announced
OPEC+ agreed to begin unwinding 2.2 Mbpd of voluntary cuts starting October 2024, adding roughly 180k bpd per month. UAE baseline increased.
Oct to Dec 2024
Unwind postponed repeatedly
Weak demand growth and falling prices led to three consecutive postponements. Unwind pushed to Q1 2025, then Q2 2025.
Feb 28, 2026
Strait of Hormuz closed
The OPEC+ framework became irrelevant overnight. Quotas don't matter when you can't export. Saudi cut from 10 to 8 Mbpd. Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar declared force majeure. See Chapter 26.
Mar 15, 2026
12 Mbpd shut in
Gulf exports dropped 60%, from 25 to 10 Mbpd. The largest involuntary production loss in oil history. OPEC+ as an organization has not met since the crisis began.
Dec 10, 2016
Declaration of Cooperation signed
OPEC and 10 non-OPEC producers (led by Russia) agreed to cut 1.8 Mbpd. First coordinated OPEC/non-OPEC cut since 2001.
Jan 1, 2017
Cuts take effect
Target: 32.5 Mbpd total OPEC production. Compliance unexpectedly high at 90%+.
Nov 30, 2017
Extension through 2018
Vienna meeting extended cuts through December 2018. Libya and Nigeria exempted.
Jun 22, 2018
Partial unwind agreed
After the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (May 2018), OPEC+ agreed to increase production to offset anticipated Iran sanctions losses.
Dec 7, 2018
Deeper cuts
New 1.2 Mbpd cut from January 2019. Russia reluctant but agreed.
Jul 1, 2019
Charter of Cooperation
Made the OPEC+ framework permanent (previously ad hoc).
Mar 6, 2020
Saudi-Russia price war begins
Russia refused deeper cuts to offset COVID demand destruction. Saudi Arabia retaliated by announcing maximum production and discount pricing. The worst single day for oil prices since 1991.
Apr 12, 2020
Historic 9.7 Mbpd emergency cut
Largest coordinated production cut in history. Followed Trump brokering a deal between MBS and Putin. Still not enough to prevent WTI going negative on April 20.
Apr 20, 2020
WTI goes negative
May 2020 contract settled at minus $37.63. Cushing storage near full. See Chapter 23 for the full account.
May to Dec 2020
Gradual easing
Cuts reduced from 9.7 to 7.7 Mbpd (August 2020), then to 5.8 Mbpd (January 2021). Demand recovering slowly.
Jul 18, 2021
UAE baseline dispute
UAE demanded a higher production baseline, briefly threatening the OPEC+ framework. Resolved by increasing UAE baseline to 3.5 Mbpd from April 2022.
Aug to Dec 2021
Monthly 400k bpd increases
OPEC+ added 400k bpd each month. Demand recovery outpaced the unwind. WTI climbed from $65 to $75.
Feb 24, 2022
Russia invades Ukraine
Oil spiked above $100. OPEC+ maintained its scheduled 400k/month increases but actual production fell short as Russia's output was sanctioned.
Oct 5, 2022
2 Mbpd cut despite US pressure
OPEC+ cut 2 Mbpd from November 2022 quotas despite Biden administration lobbying Saudi Arabia not to cut. Washington called it "aligning with Russia."
Apr 2, 2023
Surprise voluntary cuts
Saudi Arabia and allies announced 1.16 Mbpd voluntary cuts on top of group quotas. Unannounced before the meeting.
Jun 4, 2023
Saudi unilateral 1 Mbpd cut
Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut an additional 1 Mbpd (from roughly 10 to 9 Mbpd), calling it a "lollipop" for the market. Extended repeatedly through 2024.
Nov 30, 2023
Voluntary cuts extended, Angola exits
Group agreed to extend voluntary cuts. Angola announced departure from OPEC (effective January 1, 2024), reducing OPEC to 12 members.
Jun 2, 2024
Gradual unwind plan announced
OPEC+ agreed to begin unwinding 2.2 Mbpd of voluntary cuts starting October 2024, adding roughly 180k bpd per month. UAE baseline increased.
Oct to Dec 2024
Unwind postponed repeatedly
Weak demand growth and falling prices led to three consecutive postponements. Unwind pushed to Q1 2025, then Q2 2025.
Feb 28, 2026
Strait of Hormuz closed
The OPEC+ framework became irrelevant overnight. Quotas don't matter when you can't export. Saudi cut from 10 to 8 Mbpd. Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar declared force majeure. See Chapter 26.
Mar 15, 2026
12 Mbpd shut in
Gulf exports dropped 60%, from 25 to 10 Mbpd. The largest involuntary production loss in oil history. OPEC+ as an organization has not met since the crisis began.
OPEC Spare Capacity
OPEC Effective Spare Crude Capacity, 2000 to 2025
Read more
Chapter 22: OPEC+ for the full narrative of the cartel's evolution from 2016 onward.
Chapter 26: Iran Blocks the Strait for the 2026 Hormuz crisis and its impact on global oil supply.